Tampa New Homes: Inventory & Market Update for Week of Jan 23rd, 2012
View Current Inventory: http://www.suarezhousing.com/?property_location=harbour-isles
Low and stable mortgage rates and a modestly improving economy are starting to produce positive effects on the nation’s housing market. While starting from extraordinarily low levels, there have been accumulating signs of improvement for months. If the economy can continue to nudge forward for a while longer without some new or already-known catastrophe to derail it, we just might have ourselves a housing market worth talking about when Spring rolls around.
Are we really on a path to housing recovery, finally? Yes. By no means yet at a breakeven level, let alone healthy, the indicator of builder sentiment from the National Association of Homebuilders continues to rise. The reading of 25 for January was about half the neutral level of 50, but almost double the 13 seen as recently as June. In fact, the overall reading was the highest in four years. Sales of single-family homes, traffic in showrooms and sales offices and expectations for sales over the next six months are all on the rise. Even if there is a long way to go, that we are moving in the right direction is a welcome sign of recovery.
Starts of new homes were down by 4.1% in December, but that minor dip does not derail an almost steady upturn in residential construction which began in March 2011. The 657,000 rate of initiation was off of November’s pace, but permits for future activity were almost level, and starts of single-family homes continue to ratchet higher; at 470,000 annualized, this would be counted among the highest annualized rates seen over the past couple of years.
Sales of existing homes are bouncing higher, too. The National Association of Realtors reported a 5% rise in sales in December, with the total landing at a 4.61 million (annualized) rate of sale for the month. It was the strongest annualized figure since early 2011. Inventory levels shrank back to 6.2 months of available stock, but it was noted that this was die to a decline in listings rather than an upsurge in actual sales. More inventory is expected to come on the market as foreclosure activity — stalled for a portion of 2011 — begins to again come back up to speed.
Inventories may have leaned out as potential homesellers decide to wait for better conditions in the form of firming prices and greater traffic levels before re-listing their homes for sale. Others may have hoped to sell as their personal economic conditions deteriorated, but may have seen improvements or even obtained loan modifications or refinances which provided sufficient breathing room to allow them to remain for a while longer. Whatever the case, slimmer inventories may eventually support prices, but for the moment, that’s not been the case, as prices are still easing (albeit at a slower pace that earlier in 2011).
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